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Well, I varied the impedance of the transformer to match the Littelfuse fault current. So it should not matter for this example what the utility feed is capable of as tje short circuit current is limited by the transformer impedance.
Please correct me if I am wrong but the Littelfuse article shows 29.5kA short circuit on the Main Switchgear bus while your Easypower study shows 30.71kA for the Main under the 'Bus Bolted Fault' column. The difference could explain the discrepancy between IE value reported in the Littelfuse article (135cal/cm2) and your EasyPower model (107cal/cm2) as it takes more time for the upstream protection device (KLPC 2000A) melt and clear lower fault current.
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As far as X/R, in regards to arc flash hazard analysis, Jim Phillips responded in a thread from December 2010
I was talking about X/R impact on the amount of predicted short circuit current only and not the X/R in regards to arc flash analysis. What I meant is that if you neglect equipment X/R ratios in your short circuit analysis and operate with equipment impedance only you introduce significant error. What is even worse, the error can't be quantified and therefore the results can be used as scientific guess only. As an example adding jX=1Ohm reactance and 1Ohm resistance in series produces combined 1.73Ohm impedance. If you ignored either the equipment X/R or the equipment reactance, you would end up with combined 2Ohm or 1Ohm impedance respectively. Similar observations apply when adding equipment impedances in parallel. Neither the Littelfuse nor your Easypower study lists X/R or fault power factors that's why I'm not convinced in the presented short circuit studies.
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According to EasyPower, the column on the spreadsheet for Estimated Arc Fault (kA) is: Estimated Arc Fault (kA): This is the estimated current flowing through the trip device, which contributes to the total arc current. This value is used by the program to estimate the trip time. For calculating the incident energy, the total fault current at the faulted bus is used.
I don't see the 'Estimated Arc Fault (kA)' column in your EasyPower study unless I am missing something. Also, IEEE 1584 provides for IE calculated based on predicted arcing current and predicted arcing current reduced by %15, not the total fault current at the faulted bus. Are you sure this is exactly what EasyPower is doing?
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So, when one lines this current up on the respective TCC, it is still a fast trip time in the instantaneous region, so again there is no way I see to acheive the high cal/cm^2 that was noted in the article.
I believe you are right about the high cal/cm2. However, even a small deviation in arcing current used in determining arc flash duration could prove you wrong and the Littelfuse findings right. I would still make sure having accurate short circuit current values (both total SC and part of the current through protective device) to begin with before making such unconditional conclusion.
The biggest challenge I see with circuit breakers in arc flash analysis is that even a small inaccuracy in calculated SC current, other system parameters (for example conductor gap), the breaker margin of error, environmental conditions, aging etc. could lead to such a drastic change in IE and AFB. I am personally more a fan of fuses in arc flash analysis as they offer much more gradual change of IE as function of system parameters comparing to breakers.