PaulEngr wrote:
Though I disagree with your claims about arc flash injury below 1 second because of data to the contrary (from Prichard), and does not seem to correlate well with reality as so far,[...]
Indeed, what you claim are "claims" correlate very well with the reality as the findings are based on a number of experimental studies referenced in
Evaluation of Onset to Second Degree Burn Energy in Arc Flash as well as more studies including the ones listed below:
A. Privette, "Progress report for ASTM Burn Study", Duke Power Company, 1992
A. Brownell, et al., "Ocular and skin hazards from CO2 laser radiation". Joint AMRDC-AMC Laser Safety Team, Philadelphia, PA, 1972
A.Stoll, "Heat Transfer in Biotechnology", Advances in Heat Transfer, v.4. Academic Press. 1967The quote from A.Stoll
"Heat Transfer in Biotechnology" below summarizes the issue of using 1.2 cal/cm^2 as a threshold incident energy to 2nd degree burn while disregarding how fast the energy was delivered:
A.Stoll wrote:
Serious misconceptions have crept into this field of research through adoption of rule-of-thumb terminology which has lost its identity as such and become accepted as fact. A glaring example of this process is the "critical thermal load." This quantity is defined as the total energy delivered in any given exposure required to produce some given endpoint such as a blister. Mathematically it is the product of the flux and exposure time for a shaped pulse. Implicit in this treatment is the assumption that thermal injury is a function of dosage as in ionizing radiation, so that the process obeys the "law of reciprocity," i.e., that equal injury is produced by equal doses. On the contrary, a very large amount of energy delivered over a greatly extended time produces no injury at all while the same "dose" delivered instantaneously may totally destroy the skin. Conversely, measurements of doses which produce the same damage over even a narrow range of intensities of radiation show that the "law of reciprocity" fails, for the doses are not equal.
Would you mind returning a favor and sharing a copy of or the reference to Prichard's publication your disagreement is based on?
PaulEngr wrote:
[...] IEEE 1584 has worked 100% of the time even though the standard itself only claims 95% accuracy, [...]
I highly regard the work done by IEEE 1584. Indeed, the 5% inaccuracy associated with the IEEE 1584 calculations is an order of magnitude less comparing to the reported 50% possibility of specifying inadequate arc flash PPE when using the NFPA 70E tables.
PaulEngr wrote:
[...] and your probability math is a bit off not only because 4/6 is not 50% but also because of survivorship bias, one is not guaranteed a fatality due to exposure to an arc flash even if it exceeds the second degree burn threshold regardless of how that threshold is determined. The data put together by some of the Dupont folks show that a major injury involving hospitalization has a 50% chance when following the tables in 70E.
Here is how I come up with around 50% outcome you are questioning. It's a 6 shot revolver and you get to spin the cylinder each time you try. The chance of surviving the first trial is therefore 5/6. The chance of surviving two consecutive trials is 5/6 * 5/6, and in general the chance of surviving
n trials is (5/6)^n. Therefore, the chance of surviving four trials is (5/6)^4 = 0.48, or 48%. Indeed, I was exemplifying the odds of being killed or receiving a major injury combined. My point is that the procedure claiming 50% success rate is no more convincing than tossing a coin and making decision based on the outcome.
PaulEngr wrote:
[...] However there are two changes to those tables. About 6 years ago, "2" disappeared. Second the 2015 tables no longer specify reduced PPE. The effect is that the study may soon be much less accurate. An arc flash by the way is rarely fatal. Perusal of the OSHA accident investigation data, though necessarily biased to some degree, shows on average better than an order of magnitude lower risk of a fatality compared to n injury requiring hospitalization due to arc flash. This surprising result has been cataloged by others as well. For this reason, your analogy is WAY off.
I must be missing something but I expected the standard to get more accurate over the time contrary to what you are saying. I believe most folks relying on the NFPA 70E PPE recommendations for protection against electric arc expect avoiding incurable burns while surviving potential incident. Also, improperly sized or tested PPE may very well aggravate the injury.
PaulEngr wrote:
Not that electrical injuries are not serious but lets not go down the road of fear mongering and passing around false, questionable, or even unsubstantiated information. Making an emotional plea does help make the case when it is based on solid claims. But when it is obviously not, it simply destroys credibility and since we are dealing with rare events which create a "it can't happen to me" mentality, credibility is of the utmost importance.
I don't quite make a connection between the appeal and my post.